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MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

12-15  |  Road

6
FINAL
Mon, Apr 28 • 10:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

18-10  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Calvin Faucher
STARTING PITCHER

Calvin Faucher

#53 | Relief Pitcher
@
Tanner Scott
STARTING PITCHER

Tanner Scott

#66 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Calvin Faucher None-None 3.48 -- 1.0 3
Tanner Scott None-None 2.40 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.48 ERA Ldr 2.40
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
31%
📊
DODGERS
69%
MARLINS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.9
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Los Angeles)
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

23.7%

Dodgers Cover

76.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

MIA By 1-2 runs

11.0%

MIA By 3-4 runs

5.7%

LAD By 1-2 runs

18.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.12
MIAMI
5.99
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
MIAMI
6
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Win
69% Win Prob
C
Sim Dodgers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.9
D
Sim Dodgers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.1
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 LAD @ MIA 4 - 6
Sep 12, 2026 LAD @ MIA 3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026 LAD @ MIA 6 - 2
Apr 29, 2026 MIA @ LAD 3 - 2
Apr 28, 2026 MIA @ LAD 2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.249
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.727
OPS
▲ .762
168
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +31.3% more
Los Angeles: 10.5 vs Miami: 8.0
Total Bases (L5) +29.6% more
Los Angeles: 18.2 vs Miami: 14.1
Home Runs (Season) +21.4% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Miami: 168.0
Strikeouts (L5) +13.8% more
Los Angeles: 10.0 vs Miami: 8.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 3.1 6
LAD Score 6.0 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.2 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.5 / 8.0 12.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 1.6 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.0 / 8.8 4.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 18.2 / 14.1 16.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.2 / 4.6 4.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
MIA
LAD
MIA
ML
56% 92-73
48% 78-84
48% 79-87
55% 88-72
ATS
59% 98-67
56% 91-71
43% 72-94
54% 86-74
TTL
48% 77-82-6
56% 88-69-5
44% 70-90-6
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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