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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

13-16  |  Road

6
FINAL
Tue, Apr 29 • 6:45 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

15-13  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Jacob Young
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Young

#30 | Center Field
@
Orion Kerkering
STARTING PITCHER

Orion Kerkering

#50 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jacob Young None-None -- -- -- --
Orion Kerkering None-None 5.56 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 5.56
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
41%
📊
PHILLIES
59%
NATIONALS --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Philadelphia)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

41.0%

Phillies Cover

59.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

WSH By 1-2 runs

16.5%

WSH By 3-4 runs

10.9%

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.5%

PHI By 3-4 runs

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
3.79
WASHINGTON
4.7
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
6
WASHINGTON
4
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phillies (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
C
Sim Nationals (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 16, 2026 PHI @ WSH 3 - 0
Sep 15, 2026 PHI @ WSH 3 - 6
Aug 6, 2026 WSH @ PHI 3 - 7
Aug 5, 2026 WSH @ PHI 10 - 4
Aug 4, 2026 WSH @ PHI 0 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Philadelphia PHI
162 ▲
Games Played
2
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .438
.744 ▲
OPS
.724
210 ▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +16.8% more
Philadelphia: 9.0 vs Washington: 7.7
Errors (L5) +8.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.5 vs Washington: 0.4
Slugging Pct (Season) +1.5%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs Washington: 42.3%
Home Runs (Season) +98.6% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.8 6
PHI Score 4.7 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.3 / 9.8 9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 1.3 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 7.7 13.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 11.3 / 15.5 16.0 / 22.0
Walks 3.0 / 4.0 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
WSH
PHI
WSH
ML
59% 97-67
57% 92-69
49% 80-84
54% 87-74
ATS
65% 107-57
58% 93-68
51% 83-81
57% 91-70
TTL
57% 88-67-9
50% 77-78-6
51% 78-76-9
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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