ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
15-13 | Road
3
NEW YORK
METSNYM
20-9 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Eduardo Rodriguez
#57 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Francisco Alvarez
#4 | Catcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez | None-None | 6.06 | -- | 4.0 | 1 |
| Francisco Alvarez | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.06
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
4.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
1
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
34%
METS
66%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
ARI By 1-2 runs
18.4%
ARI By 3-4 runs
13.5%
NYM By 1-2 runs
18.4%
NYM By 3-4 runs
13.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
5.05
ARIZONA
New York
5.06
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Win
66% Win Prob
C
Sim
Mets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: 0.0
D
Sim
Mets (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.1
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 10, 2026
NYM @ ARI
1 - 5
May 9, 2026
NYM @ ARI
1 - 2
May 8, 2026
NYM @ ARI
3 - 1
Apr 9, 2026
ARI @ NYM
7 - 1
Apr 8, 2026
ARI @ NYM
7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.720
▲
OPS
.705
166
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+64.3% more
New York: 12.8
vs
Arizona: 7.8
Total Bases (L5)
+24.8% more
New York: 20.6
vs
Arizona: 16.5
Home Runs (Season)
+22.9% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Arizona: 166.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+8.7% more
New York: 9.4
vs
Arizona: 8.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
5.1
3
NYM Score
5.1
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 1.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
12.8 / 7.8
9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 1.7
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 8.7
7.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
20.6 / 16.5
19.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.2 / 4.2
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
ARI
NYM
ARI
ML
50%
79-80
54%
87-74
48%
76-83
54%
86-74
ATS
58%
93-66
57%
91-70
49%
78-81
56%
89-71
TTL
55%
80-66-13
52%
80-73-8
51%
74-72-13
49%
73-77-9
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