ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
13-15 | Road
8
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
4-24 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
AJ Smith-Shawver
#32 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jimmy Herget
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AJ Smith-Shawver | None-None | 4.26 | -- | 5.1 | 5 |
| Jimmy Herget | None-None | 2.40 | -- | 1.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.26
ERA
Ldr 2.40
--
WHIP
--
5.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.2
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
84%
ROCKIES
16%
BRAVES
--
ROCKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
16.2%
COL By 1-2 runs
16.4%
COL By 3-4 runs
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
4.6
ATLANTA
Colorado
3.64
COLORADO
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Colorado
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Win
84% Win Prob
A
Sim
Rockies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Rockies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.2
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2026
COL @ ATL
2 - 3
Aug 29, 2026
COL @ ATL
1 - 2
Aug 28, 2026
COL @ ATL
4 - 6
May 3, 2026
ATL @ COL
11 - 6
May 2, 2026
ATL @ COL
9 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Colorado
COL
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.64
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.254
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.417
.757
▲
OPS
.739
1
Home Runs
▲
180
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+45.1% more
Atlanta: 11.3
vs
Colorado: 6.2
Errors (L5)
+37.0% more
Atlanta: 0.7
vs
Colorado: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+27.6% more
Atlanta: 16.0
vs
Colorado: 11.6
Walks (L5)
+9.3% more
Atlanta: 3.5
vs
Colorado: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
4.6
8
COL Score
3.6
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.7
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.2 / 11.3
6.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.8
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 7.3
2.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
11.6 / 16.0
9.0 / 20.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.5
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
ATL
COL
ATL
ML
60%
97-64
46%
77-90
55%
88-73
54%
90-78
ATS
60%
97-64
57%
96-71
52%
83-78
52%
87-81
TTL
60%
93-62-6
53%
83-73-11
50%
77-78-6
49%
76-80-11
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