Home / MLB Projections MLB / Marlins @ Dodgers MIA @ LAD

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

12-16  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Apr 29 • 10:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

19-10  |  Home

15
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Phillips
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Phillips

#30 | Starting Pitcher
@
Jack Dreyer
STARTING PITCHER

Jack Dreyer

#86 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Phillips None-None 4.70 -- 2.1 1
Jack Dreyer None-None 3.63 -- 2.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
4.70 ERA Ldr 3.63
-- WHIP --
2.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 2.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
28%
📊
DODGERS
72%
MARLINS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Los Angeles)
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

28.9%

Dodgers Cover

71.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

MIA By 1-2 runs

12.9%

MIA By 3-4 runs

7.3%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.4%

LAD By 3-4 runs

18.8%

AI Model Projected Score
3.54
MIAMI
5.76
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
3
MIAMI
6
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Win
72% Win Prob
B
Sim Dodgers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.2
D
Sim Dodgers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.3
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 LAD @ MIA 4 - 6
Sep 12, 2026 LAD @ MIA 3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026 LAD @ MIA 6 - 2
Apr 29, 2026 MIA @ LAD 3 - 2
Apr 28, 2026 MIA @ LAD 2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.249
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.727
OPS
▲ .762
168
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +67.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.8 vs Miami: 0.2
Hits (L5) +37.5% more
Los Angeles: 11.0 vs Miami: 8.0
Total Bases (L5) +30.6% more
Los Angeles: 17.5 vs Miami: 13.4
Home Runs (Season) +21.4% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Miami: 168.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 3.5 2
LAD Score 5.8 15
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.2 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 11.0 / 8.0 18.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.4 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 8.5 7.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 17.5 / 13.4 30.0 / 11.0
Walks 3.5 / 5.4 1.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
MIA
LAD
MIA
ML
56% 92-73
48% 78-84
48% 79-87
55% 88-72
ATS
59% 98-67
56% 91-71
43% 72-94
54% 86-74
TTL
48% 77-82-6
56% 88-69-5
44% 70-90-6
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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