CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
18-12 | Road
3
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
11-19 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Thielbar
#24 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Carmen Mlodzinski
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Thielbar | None-None | 3.86 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski | None-None | 6.58 | -- | 4.0 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.86 Ldr
ERA
6.58
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
72%
PIRATES
28%
CUBS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
47%
Under 0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CHC By 3-4 runs
18.3%
PIT By 1-2 runs
13.7%
PIT By 3-4 runs
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
5.66
CHICAGO
Pittsburgh
3.72
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cubs
Loss
72% Win Prob
B
Sim
Pirates
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cubs (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.9
D
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 13, 2026
PIT @ CHC
4 - 3
Sep 12, 2026
PIT @ CHC
3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026
PIT @ CHC
2 - 12
Jul 26, 2026
CHC @ PIT
7 - 8
Jul 25, 2026
CHC @ PIT
11 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.374
OPS
▲
.734
0
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+49.4% more
Chicago: 1.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+37.7% more
Chicago: 7.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.3
Total Bases (L5)
+33.3% more
Chicago: 17.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 11.7
Hits (L5)
+11.5% more
Chicago: 9.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 8.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
5.7
3
PIT Score
3.7
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.2 / 9.3
9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.7
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
4.3 / 7.0
8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 17.5
13.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.9 / 3.5
1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
CHC
PIT
CHC
ML
52%
82-77
58%
93-68
52%
85-78
51%
82-79
ATS
54%
86-73
61%
97-63-1
50%
81-82
47%
75-85-1
TTL
47%
72-81-6
52%
81-74-6
50%
79-78-6
46%
72-83-6
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