ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
15-14 | Road
4
NEW YORK
METSNYM
21-9 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Thompson
#81 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Francisco Alvarez
#4 | Catcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Thompson | None-None | 4.26 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Francisco Alvarez | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.26
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
1
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
31%
METS
69%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
ARI By 1-2 runs
14.1%
ARI By 3-4 runs
8.3%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.7%
NYM By 3-4 runs
18.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
4.27
ARIZONA
New York
6.09
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Sim
Mets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.8
A
Sim
Mets (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.4
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 10, 2026
NYM @ ARI
1 - 5
May 9, 2026
NYM @ ARI
1 - 2
May 8, 2026
NYM @ ARI
3 - 1
Apr 9, 2026
ARI @ NYM
7 - 1
Apr 8, 2026
ARI @ NYM
7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.720
▲
OPS
.705
166
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+91.9% more
New York: 2.1
vs
Arizona: 1.1
Hits (L5)
+46.8% more
New York: 11.5
vs
Arizona: 7.9
Total Bases (L5)
+36.9% more
New York: 20.1
vs
Arizona: 14.7
Home Runs (Season)
+22.9% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Arizona: 166.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
4.3
4
NYM Score
6.1
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.5 / 7.9
7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 1.1
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 7.1
9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
20.1 / 14.7
14.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.5 / 3.8
2.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
ARI
NYM
ARI
ML
50%
79-80
54%
87-74
48%
76-83
54%
86-74
ATS
58%
93-66
57%
91-70
49%
78-81
56%
89-71
TTL
55%
80-66-13
52%
80-73-8
51%
74-72-13
49%
73-77-9
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