ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
14-17 | Road
1
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
16-15 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Riley O'Brien
#61 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Abbott
#41 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley O'Brien | None-None | 10.13 | -- | 1.2 | 2 |
| Andrew Abbott | None-None | 2.84 | -- | 4.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
10.13
ERA
Ldr 2.84
--
WHIP
--
1.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
44%
REDS
56%
CARDINALS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
STL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
18.1%
CIN By 1-2 runs
14.1%
CIN By 3-4 runs
8.4%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
5.4
ST. LOUIS
Cincinnati
3.6
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Cincinnati
6
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Loss
44% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim
Reds (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
STL @ CIN
10 - 9
Aug 19, 2026
STL @ CIN
4 - 5
Aug 18, 2026
STL @ CIN
3 - 0
Aug 17, 2026
STL @ CIN
2 - 1
Jul 26, 2026
CIN @ STL
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.44
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.313
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.394
.691
OPS
▲
.699
167
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+49.0% more
St. Louis: 1.5
vs
Cincinnati: 0.8
Runs per Game (Season)
+7.4% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.0%
St. Louis: 23.9%
vs
Cincinnati: 22.9%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.8%
St. Louis: 31.3%
vs
Cincinnati: 30.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
5.4
1
CIN Score
3.6
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.1
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.3 / 7.3
9.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.5
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 5.6
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.7 / 13.5
15.0 / 3.0
Walks
4.0 / 2.8
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
STL
CIN
STL
ML
55%
88-71
53%
85-74
49%
79-81
52%
84-77
ATS
54%
86-73
56%
89-70
50%
80-80
53%
85-76
TTL
53%
81-73-5
46%
68-81-10
54%
83-72-5
50%
76-75-10
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