ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
16-14 | Road
4
NEW YORK
METSNYM
21-10 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Ginkel
#37 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kodai Senga
#34 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Ginkel | None-None | 6.75 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Kodai Senga | None-None | 1.38 | -- | 4.0 | 6 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.75
ERA
Ldr 1.38
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.0
3
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
35%
METS
65%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
63%
Under 0
37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
ARI By 1-2 runs
13.9%
ARI By 3-4 runs
8.1%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.6%
NYM By 3-4 runs
18.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
4.26
ARIZONA
New York
6.16
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
New York
6
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Loss
65% Win Prob
C
Sim
Mets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.9
D
Sim
Mets (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.4
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 10, 2026
NYM @ ARI
1 - 5
May 9, 2026
NYM @ ARI
1 - 2
May 8, 2026
NYM @ ARI
3 - 1
Apr 9, 2026
ARI @ NYM
7 - 1
Apr 8, 2026
ARI @ NYM
7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.246
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.318
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.720
▲
OPS
.705
166
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+135.0% more
New York: 2.1
vs
Arizona: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+34.2% more
New York: 18.1
vs
Arizona: 13.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+29.9% more
New York: 8.7
vs
Arizona: 6.7
Hits (L5)
+26.7% more
New York: 10.0
vs
Arizona: 7.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
4.3
4
NYM Score
6.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.6
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.0 / 7.9
5.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 0.7
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 6.7
11.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
18.1 / 13.5
12.0 / 16.0
Walks
2.3 / 5.5
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
ARI
NYM
ARI
ML
50%
79-80
54%
87-74
48%
76-83
54%
86-74
ATS
58%
93-66
57%
91-70
49%
78-81
56%
89-71
TTL
55%
80-66-13
52%
80-73-8
51%
74-72-13
49%
73-77-9
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …