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MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

13-18  |  Road

3
FINAL
Thu, May 1 • 1:10 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

17-13  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Kody Clemens
STARTING PITCHER

Kody Clemens

#2 | Second Base
@
Tim Herrin
STARTING PITCHER

Tim Herrin

#29 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kody Clemens None-None -- -- -- --
Tim Herrin None-None 3.09 -- 1.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 3.09
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.1
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
36%
📊
GUARDIANS
64%
TWINS --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 67%
Under 0 33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Minnesota)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

59.8%

Guardians Cover

40.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

MIN By 3-4 runs

16.3%

CLE By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CLE By 3-4 runs

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.16
MINNESOTA
3.17
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
3
MINNESOTA
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Twins Loss
36% Win Prob
D
Sim Guardians Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Twins (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Sim Guardians (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.3
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 CLE @ MIN 9 - 2
Sep 12, 2026 CLE @ MIN 3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026 CLE @ MIN 5 - 2
Jul 23, 2026 MIN @ CLE 3 - 1
Jul 22, 2026 MIN @ CLE 10 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Cleveland CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.720 ▲
OPS
.696
187 ▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +25.4% more
Minnesota: 8.8 vs Cleveland: 6.6
Total Bases (L5) +17.6% more
Minnesota: 13.4 vs Cleveland: 11.0
Home Runs (Season) +13.4% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs Cleveland: 162.0
Runs per Game (Season) +8.1% more
Minnesota: 4.6 vs Cleveland: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 4.2 3
CLE Score 3.2 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.6 / 8.8 6.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.4 / 8.7 4.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 11.0 / 13.4 9.0 / 16.0
Walks 2.8 / 1.6 3.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
MIN
CLE
MIN
ML
54% 87-74
52% 84-78
49% 80-82
50% 80-81
ATS
58% 93-68
59% 95-67
59% 95-67
59% 95-66
TTL
55% 88-71-2
51% 78-75-9
43% 69-90-2
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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