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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

13-18  |  Road

4
FINAL
Thu, May 1 • 6:45 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

17-13  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Jacob Young
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Young

#30 | Center Field
@
Orion Kerkering
STARTING PITCHER

Orion Kerkering

#50 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jacob Young None-None -- -- -- --
Orion Kerkering None-None 5.40 -- 0.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 5.40
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
36%
📊
PHILLIES
64%
NATIONALS --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Philadelphia)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

35.1%

Phillies Cover

64.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

WSH By 1-2 runs

14.9%

WSH By 3-4 runs

9.1%

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.7%

PHI By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.46
WASHINGTON
4.99
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
6
WASHINGTON
3
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Loss
64% Win Prob
C
Sim Nationals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phillies (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Nationals (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.5
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 16, 2026 PHI @ WSH 3 - 0
Sep 15, 2026 PHI @ WSH 3 - 6
Aug 6, 2026 WSH @ PHI 3 - 7
Aug 5, 2026 WSH @ PHI 10 - 4
Aug 4, 2026 WSH @ PHI 0 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Philadelphia PHI
162 ▲
Games Played
2
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .438
.744 ▲
OPS
.724
210 ▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +79.1% more
Philadelphia: 10.9 vs Washington: 6.1
Home Runs (L5) +53.4% more
Philadelphia: 1.6 vs Washington: 1.0
Total Bases (L5) +10.8% more
Philadelphia: 15.3 vs Washington: 13.8
Slugging Pct (Season) +1.5%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs Washington: 42.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.5 4
PHI Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.0 / 8.4 9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.9 / 6.1 4.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 15.3 / 13.8 12.0 / 8.0
Walks 2.6 / 3.0 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
WSH
PHI
WSH
ML
59% 97-67
57% 92-69
49% 80-84
54% 87-74
ATS
65% 107-57
58% 93-68
51% 83-81
57% 91-70
TTL
57% 88-67-9
50% 77-78-6
51% 78-76-9
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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