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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

14-18  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, May 2 • 6:10 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

17-15  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Jacob Young
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Young

#30 | Center Field
@
Emilio Pagan
STARTING PITCHER

Emilio Pagan

#15 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jacob Young None-None -- -- -- --
Emilio Pagan None-None 2.35 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.35
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
41%
📊
REDS
59%
NATIONALS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Washington)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

55.6%

Reds Cover

44.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1-2 runs

19.2%

WSH By 3-4 runs

15.2%

CIN By 1-2 runs

17.3%

CIN By 3-4 runs

11.9%

AI Model Projected Score
5.29
WASHINGTON
4.73
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nationals Loss
41% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Nationals (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
D
Sim Reds (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 CIN @ WSH 1 - 7
Aug 8, 2026 CIN @ WSH 2 - 8
Aug 7, 2026 CIN @ WSH 3 - 5
May 14, 2026 WSH @ CIN 1 - 15
May 13, 2026 WSH @ CIN 8 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.744 ▲
OPS
.699
210
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +18.9% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
OPS (Season) +4.5%
Washington: 74.4% vs Cincinnati: 69.9%
Slugging Pct (Season) +2.9%
Washington: 42.3% vs Cincinnati: 39.4%
Batting Avg (Season) +1.7%
Washington: 24.6% vs Cincinnati: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 5.3 1
CIN Score 4.7 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.5 / 7.6 7.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 6.4 17.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 13.5 / 11.8 10.0 / 7.0
Walks 4.0 / 2.7 4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
WSH
CIN
WSH
ML
55% 88-71
57% 92-69
49% 79-81
54% 87-74
ATS
54% 86-73
58% 93-68
50% 80-80
57% 91-70
TTL
53% 81-73-5
50% 77-78-6
54% 83-72-5
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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