Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Braves LAD @ ATL

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

21-10  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, May 2 • 7:15 PM ET
Truist Park
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

14-16  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Evan Phillips
STARTING PITCHER

Evan Phillips

#59 | Relief Pitcher
@
Dylan Lee
STARTING PITCHER

Dylan Lee

#52 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Evan Phillips None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 2
Dylan Lee None-None 2.03 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 2.03
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
71%
📊
BRAVES
29%
DODGERS --
BRAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 68%
Under 0 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.8
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.8 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 BravesATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

83.2%

Braves Cover

16.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -3.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

16.7%

LAD By 3-4 runs

19.7%

ATL By 1-2 runs

8.2%

ATL By 3-4 runs

3.8%

AI Model Projected Score
7.18
LOS ANGELES
3.33
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
6
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Win
71% Win Prob
B
Sim Braves Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.8
D
Sim Braves (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.5
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 7, 2026 LAD @ ATL 4 - 1
Oct 6, 2026 LAD @ ATL 3 - 1
Oct 4, 2026 ATL @ LAD 3 - 2
Oct 3, 2026 ATL @ LAD 3 - 5
Aug 27, 2026 LAD @ ATL 0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Atlanta ATL
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.94
Runs / Game
▲ 5.00
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.324
.424
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .433
.762 ▲
OPS
.757
204 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.5% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Atlanta: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +80.5% more
Los Angeles: 1.7 vs Atlanta: 0.3
Total Bases (L5) +49.4% more
Los Angeles: 24.8 vs Atlanta: 12.5
Hits (L5) +37.2% more
Los Angeles: 14.6 vs Atlanta: 9.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 7.2 2
ATL Score 3.3 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.2 / 14.6 2.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 1.7 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 9.1 11.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 12.5 / 24.8 6.0 / 7.0
Walks 2.0 / 2.4 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
ATL
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
LAD
ATL
LAD
ML
46% 77-90
56% 92-73
54% 90-78
48% 79-87
ATS
57% 96-71
59% 98-67
52% 87-81
43% 72-94
TTL
53% 83-73-11
48% 77-82-6
49% 76-80-11
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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