HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
16-14 | Road
3
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
8-23 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bennett Sousa
#62 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Edgar Quero
#26 | Catcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bennett Sousa | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Edgar Quero | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
77%
WHITE SOX
23%
ASTROS
--
WHITE SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
47%
Under 0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.5%
HOU By 3-4 runs
18.7%
CHW By 1-2 runs
13.0%
CHW By 3-4 runs
7.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
4.95
HOUSTON
Chicago
2.77
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Chicago
7
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Loss
77% Win Prob
B
Sim
White Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.2
D
Sim
White Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
CHW @ HOU
7 - 3
Sep 29, 2026
CHW @ HOU
6 - 3
Sep 3, 2026
CHW @ HOU
2 - 6
Sep 2, 2026
CHW @ HOU
0 - 2
Sep 1, 2026
CHW @ HOU
5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Chicago
CHW
2
▲
Games Played
1
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.582
OPS
▲
.826
4
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+24.4% more
Houston: 1.2
vs
Chicago: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+11.9% more
Houston: 14.7
vs
Chicago: 12.9
Walks (L5)
+143.0% more
Chicago: 4.9
vs
Houston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+100.0% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Houston: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
5.0
3
CHW Score
2.8
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.3 / 0.7
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.5 / 9.0
9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 9.1
6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 14.7
14.0 / 15.0
Walks
4.9 / 2.0
1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
HOU
CHW
HOU
ML
49%
81-86
50%
81-82
56%
94-73
47%
77-87
ATS
59%
99-68
56%
91-72
56%
93-74
55%
90-74
TTL
58%
96-69-2
45%
70-84-9
51%
84-81-2
45%
69-86-9
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