Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Cardinals NYM @ STL

NEW YORK

METSNYM

21-11  |  Road

9
FINAL
Fri, May 2 • 8:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

14-18  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Francisco Alvarez
STARTING PITCHER

Francisco Alvarez

#4 | Catcher
@
Ryne Stanek
STARTING PITCHER

Ryne Stanek

#55 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Francisco Alvarez None-None -- -- -- --
Ryne Stanek None-None 4.63 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 4.63
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
METS
71%
📊
CARDINALS
29%
METS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.2
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.2 points (New York)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

78.7%

Cardinals Cover

21.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -3.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYM By 1-2 runs

18.1%

NYM By 3-4 runs

19.7%

STL By 1-2 runs

10.1%

STL By 3-4 runs

5.0%

AI Model Projected Score
6.04
NEW YORK
2.86
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
4
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Win
71% Win Prob
B
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.2
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.9
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 11, 2026 STL @ NYM 4 - 5
Jun 10, 2026 STL @ NYM 9 - 2
Jun 9, 2026 STL @ NYM 7 - 0
Apr 1, 2026 NYM @ STL 1 - 2
Mar 31, 2026 NYM @ STL 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 4.44
.239
Avg (AVG)
.239
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .313
.395 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.705 ▲
OPS
.691
204 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +51.9% more
New York: 2.1 vs St. Louis: 1.0
Errors (L5) +47.0% more
New York: 0.9 vs St. Louis: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +37.8% more
New York: 16.0 vs St. Louis: 10.0
Strikeouts (L5) +35.7% more
New York: 9.5 vs St. Louis: 6.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 6.0 9
STL Score 2.9 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 5.9 / 8.4 9.0 / 17.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 2.1 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.1 / 9.5 8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 10.0 / 16.0 11.0 / 26.0
Walks 3.2 / 3.2 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
NYM
STL
NYM
ML
53% 85-74
50% 79-80
52% 84-77
48% 76-83
ATS
56% 89-70
58% 93-66
53% 85-76
49% 78-81
TTL
46% 68-81-10
55% 80-66-13
50% 76-75-10
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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