Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rays @ Yankees TB @ NYY

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

14-18  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, May 3 • 1:05 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

19-13  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Garrett Cleavinger
STARTING PITCHER

Garrett Cleavinger

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Tim Hill
STARTING PITCHER

Tim Hill

#41 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Garrett Cleavinger None-None 2.19 -- 0.2 1
Tim Hill None-None 2.76 -- 1.2 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.19 Ldr ERA 2.76
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.2
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
35%
📊
YANKEES
65%
RAYS --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 83%
Under 0 17%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (New York)
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

35.2%

Yankees Cover

64.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

TB By 1-2 runs

14.9%

TB By 3-4 runs

9.1%

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYY By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.82
TAMPA BAY
5.34
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
TAMPA BAY
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yankees Loss
65% Win Prob
C
Sim Yankees Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Yankees (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Yankees (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.2
A
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 7, 2026 TB @ NYY 4 - 3
Oct 5, 2026 NYY @ TB 2 - 5
Oct 3, 2026 NYY @ TB 0 - 1
Sep 24, 2026 TB @ NYY 4 - 6
Sep 23, 2026 TB @ NYY 2 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
New York NYY
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.54
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.258
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.728
OPS
▲ 1.041
169 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +137.9% more
New York: 17.7 vs Tampa Bay: 7.5
Home Runs (L5) +135.0% more
New York: 1.8 vs Tampa Bay: 0.5
Runs per Game (Season) +98.2% more
New York: 9.0 vs Tampa Bay: 4.5
Strikeouts (L5) +82.8% more
New York: 9.3 vs Tampa Bay: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.8 3
NYY Score 5.3 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.4 / 5.2 5.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 0.5 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.3 / 5.1 8.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 17.7 / 7.5 11.0 / 5.0
Walks 2.6 / 3.5 6.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
NYY
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
TB
NYY
TB
ML
47% 76-85
58% 95-68
52% 85-77
58% 95-68
ATS
59% 95-66
60% 97-66
53% 86-76
55% 90-73
TTL
53% 81-73-7
47% 73-81-9
53% 82-72-7
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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