HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
16-15 | Road
8
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
9-23 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Abreu
#52 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Davis Martin
#65 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Abreu | None-None | 1.93 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Davis Martin | None-None | 3.52 | -- | 5.0 | 5 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.93 Ldr
ERA
3.52
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
73%
WHITE SOX
27%
ASTROS
--
WHITE SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.2%
HOU By 3-4 runs
15.1%
CHW By 1-2 runs
17.4%
CHW By 3-4 runs
11.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
4.24
HOUSTON
Chicago
3.69
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Win
73% Win Prob
B
Sim
White Sox
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
D
Sim
White Sox (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.9
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
CHW @ HOU
7 - 3
Sep 29, 2026
CHW @ HOU
6 - 3
Sep 3, 2026
CHW @ HOU
2 - 6
Sep 2, 2026
CHW @ HOU
0 - 2
Sep 1, 2026
CHW @ HOU
5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Chicago
CHW
2
▲
Games Played
1
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.582
OPS
▲
.826
4
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+17.8% more
Houston: 9.4
vs
Chicago: 7.8
Home Runs (L5)
+17.4% more
Houston: 1.2
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Total Bases (L5)
+10.1% more
Houston: 14.8
vs
Chicago: 13.3
Errors (L5)
+106.0% more
Chicago: 1.5
vs
Houston: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
4.2
8
CHW Score
3.7
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.5 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.7 / 9.4
6.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.2
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 9.4
9.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
13.3 / 14.8
6.0 / 24.0
Walks
3.6 / 3.0
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
HOU
CHW
HOU
ML
49%
81-86
50%
81-82
56%
94-73
47%
77-87
ATS
59%
99-68
56%
91-72
56%
93-74
55%
90-74
TTL
58%
96-69-2
45%
70-84-9
51%
84-81-2
45%
69-86-9
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