Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Pirates SD @ PIT

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

20-11  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, May 3 • 4:05 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

12-21  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Yuki Matsui
STARTING PITCHER

Yuki Matsui

#1 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jared Triolo
STARTING PITCHER

Jared Triolo

#19 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Yuki Matsui None-None 2.57 -- 1.0 --
Jared Triolo None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.57 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
76%
📊
PIRATES
24%
PADRES --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (San Diego)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

68.7%

Pirates Cover

31.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

SD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

18.3%

PIT By 1-2 runs

13.7%

PIT By 3-4 runs

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.23
SAN DIEGO
2.28
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
3
SAN DIEGO
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Padres Win
76% Win Prob
B
Sim Pirates Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Padres (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Sim Pirates (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.5
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 26, 2026 PIT @ SD 0 - 3
Aug 25, 2026 PIT @ SD 1 - 0
Aug 24, 2026 PIT @ SD 3 - 2
Apr 8, 2026 SD @ PIT 8 - 2
Apr 7, 2026 SD @ PIT 1 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.73
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.253
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.330
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.404
.925 ▲
OPS
.734
4
Home Runs
▲ 186
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +44.3% more
San Diego: 10.0 vs Pittsburgh: 5.6
Hits (L5) +28.3% more
San Diego: 10.1 vs Pittsburgh: 7.2
Total Bases (L5) +21.3% more
San Diego: 14.1 vs Pittsburgh: 11.1
Runs per Game (Season) +21.2% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Pittsburgh: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 4.2 2
PIT Score 2.3 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.2 / 10.1 6.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 5.6 / 10.0 9.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 11.1 / 14.1 6.0 / 7.0
Walks 3.2 / 3.3 2.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
SD
PIT
SD
ML
52% 82-77
51% 85-83
52% 85-78
51% 85-82
ATS
54% 86-73
54% 91-77
50% 81-82
55% 92-75
TTL
47% 72-81-6
51% 82-80-6
50% 79-78-6
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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