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MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

13-20  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, May 3 • 4:10 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

18-16  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Bailey Ober
STARTING PITCHER

Bailey Ober

#17 | Starting Pitcher
@
Greg Weissert
STARTING PITCHER

Greg Weissert

#57 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bailey Ober None-None 3.72 -- 6.0 6
Greg Weissert None-None 3.00 -- 1.2 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.72 ERA Ldr 3.00
-- WHIP --
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.2
6 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
37%
📊
RED SOX
63%
TWINS --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Boston)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

22.5%

Red Sox Cover

77.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

MIN By 1-2 runs

10.6%

MIN By 3-4 runs

5.4%

BOS By 1-2 runs

18.4%

BOS By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.04
MINNESOTA
6.06
BOSTON
Simulated Score
4
MINNESOTA
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Red Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Sox (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim Red Sox (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.1
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 24, 2026 MIN @ BOS 6 - 5
May 23, 2026 MIN @ BOS 4 - 2
May 22, 2026 MIN @ BOS 8 - 6
Apr 15, 2026 BOS @ MIN 9 - 5
Apr 14, 2026 BOS @ MIN 0 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.720 ▲
OPS
.409
187 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +75.0% more
Boston: 1.5 vs Minnesota: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +37.3% more
Boston: 17.2 vs Minnesota: 12.5
Hits (L5) +15.8% more
Boston: 10.2 vs Minnesota: 8.8
Home Runs (Season) +98.9% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 3.0 4
BOS Score 6.1 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.2 / 8.8 12.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 9.6 4.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 17.2 / 12.5 15.0 / 15.0
Walks 2.2 / 2.8 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
MIN
BOS
MIN
ML
50% 80-80
52% 84-78
47% 76-87
50% 80-81
ATS
58% 93-67
59% 95-67
48% 79-84
59% 95-66
TTL
46% 72-83-5
51% 78-75-9
47% 74-83-6
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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