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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

14-19  |  Road

11
FINAL
Sat, May 3 • 6:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

18-15  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Jacob Young
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Young

#30 | Center Field
@
Nick Lodolo
STARTING PITCHER

Nick Lodolo

#40 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jacob Young None-None -- -- -- --
Nick Lodolo None-None 3.27 -- 5.1 4
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 3.27
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 5.1
-- K (Strikeouts) 4
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
38%
📊
REDS
62%
NATIONALS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 44%
Under 0 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Cincinnati)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

45.3%

Reds Cover

54.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

WSH By 1-2 runs

17.5%

WSH By 3-4 runs

12.2%

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.1%

CIN By 3-4 runs

14.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.82
WASHINGTON
5.29
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Reds Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim Reds (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 CIN @ WSH 1 - 7
Aug 8, 2026 CIN @ WSH 2 - 8
Aug 7, 2026 CIN @ WSH 3 - 5
May 14, 2026 WSH @ CIN 1 - 15
May 13, 2026 WSH @ CIN 8 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.744 ▲
OPS
.699
210
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +84.3% more
Cincinnati: 10.9 vs Washington: 5.9
Hits (L5) +24.9% more
Cincinnati: 8.0 vs Washington: 6.4
Total Bases (L5) +20.2% more
Cincinnati: 12.3 vs Washington: 10.2
Errors (L5) +13.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.4 vs Washington: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 4.8 11
CIN Score 5.3 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.2 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.0 / 6.4 12.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.9 / 5.9 8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 12.3 / 10.2 19.0 / 20.0
Walks 4.0 / 3.8 5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
WSH
CIN
WSH
ML
55% 88-71
57% 92-69
49% 79-81
54% 87-74
ATS
54% 86-73
58% 93-68
50% 80-80
57% 91-70
TTL
53% 81-73-5
50% 77-78-6
54% 83-72-5
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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