Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ Rangers SEA @ TEX

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

19-12  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, May 3 • 7:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

16-17  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Andres Munoz
STARTING PITCHER

Andres Munoz

#75 | Relief Pitcher
@
Joc Pederson
STARTING PITCHER

Joc Pederson

#3 | Designated Hitter
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Andres Munoz None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 1
Joc Pederson None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
63%
📊
RANGERS
37%
MARINERS --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.8
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (Seattle)
MarinersSEA (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

76.1%

Rangers Cover

23.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA -2.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

SEA By 1-2 runs

18.7%

SEA By 3-4 runs

19.5%

TEX By 1-2 runs

11.1%

TEX By 3-4 runs

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
6.25
SEATTLE
3.41
TEXAS
Simulated Score
4
SEATTLE
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mariners Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Rangers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mariners (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.8
D
Sim Rangers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 10, 2026 TEX @ SEA 3 - 4
Sep 9, 2026 TEX @ SEA 2 - 3
Sep 8, 2026 TEX @ SEA 10 - 5
Jul 27, 2026 SEA @ TEX 3 - 7
Jul 26, 2026 SEA @ TEX 6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲ 4.15
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .242
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .396
.693
OPS
▲ .713
182
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +81.0% more
Seattle: 2.2 vs Texas: 0.4
Total Bases (L5) +60.4% more
Seattle: 21.1 vs Texas: 8.3
Hits (L5) +49.6% more
Seattle: 12.4 vs Texas: 6.3
Strikeouts (L5) +16.8% more
Seattle: 8.3 vs Texas: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 6.3 2
TEX Score 3.4 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.3 / 12.4 5.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 2.2 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 8.3 3.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 8.3 / 21.1 5.0 / 16.0
Walks 3.3 / 2.1 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
SEA
TEX
SEA
ML
53% 86-76
50% 81-81
57% 91-70
52% 85-77
ATS
57% 92-70
60% 98-64
61% 98-63
59% 95-67
TTL
53% 78-70-14
56% 85-67-10
55% 81-66-14
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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