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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

15-18  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sun, May 4 • 1:35 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

19-14  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Mason Englert
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Englert

#59 | Relief Pitcher
@
Will Warren
STARTING PITCHER

Will Warren

#29 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Mason Englert None-None 4.24 -- -- --
Will Warren None-None 5.65 -- 4.2 8
None-None W-L None-None
4.24 Ldr ERA 5.65
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 4.2
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
38%
📊
YANKEES
62%
RAYS --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 74%
Under 0 26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (New York)
RaysTB (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

40.7%

Yankees Cover

59.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

TB By 1-2 runs

16.5%

TB By 3-4 runs

10.8%

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

16.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.01
TAMPA BAY
4.95
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
TAMPA BAY
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yankees Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Yankees Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Yankees (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
C
Sim Yankees (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 7, 2026 TB @ NYY 4 - 3
Oct 5, 2026 NYY @ TB 2 - 5
Oct 3, 2026 NYY @ TB 0 - 1
Sep 24, 2026 TB @ NYY 4 - 6
Sep 23, 2026 TB @ NYY 2 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
New York NYY
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.54
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.258
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.326
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.728
OPS
▲ 1.041
169 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +156.0% more
New York: 1.9 vs Tampa Bay: 0.3
Total Bases (L5) +133.5% more
New York: 15.5 vs Tampa Bay: 6.6
Runs per Game (Season) +98.2% more
New York: 9.0 vs Tampa Bay: 4.5
Strikeouts (L5) +87.9% more
New York: 8.9 vs Tampa Bay: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 4.0 7
NYY Score 5.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.3 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.9 / 5.2 8.0 / 16.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 4.7 12.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 15.5 / 6.6 12.0 / 20.0
Walks 3.7 / 2.3 5.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
NYY
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
TB
NYY
TB
ML
47% 76-85
58% 95-68
52% 85-77
58% 95-68
ATS
59% 95-66
60% 97-66
53% 86-76
55% 90-73
TTL
53% 81-73-7
47% 73-81-9
53% 82-72-7
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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