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MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

14-20  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sun, May 4 • 1:35 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

18-17  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Trevor Larnach
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor Larnach

#9 | Left Field
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Justin Slaten

#63 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Trevor Larnach None-None -- -- -- --
Justin Slaten None-None 6.57 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 6.57
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
40%
📊
RED SOX
60%
TWINS --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Boston)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

27.7%

Red Sox Cover

72.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

MIN By 1-2 runs

12.5%

MIN By 3-4 runs

6.9%

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.3%

BOS By 3-4 runs

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3.4
MINNESOTA
5.77
BOSTON
Simulated Score
3
MINNESOTA
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim Red Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Sox (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.4
D
Sim Red Sox (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 24, 2026 MIN @ BOS 6 - 5
May 23, 2026 MIN @ BOS 4 - 2
May 22, 2026 MIN @ BOS 8 - 6
Apr 15, 2026 BOS @ MIN 9 - 5
Apr 14, 2026 BOS @ MIN 0 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.720 ▲
OPS
.409
187 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +23.3% more
Boston: 16.5 vs Minnesota: 13.3
Hits (L5) +17.3% more
Boston: 10.8 vs Minnesota: 9.2
Home Runs (L5) +16.0% more
Boston: 1.0 vs Minnesota: 0.9
Home Runs (Season) +98.9% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 3.4 5
BOS Score 5.8 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.8 / 9.2 7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.9 / 9.4 10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 16.5 / 13.3 11.0 / 13.0
Walks 2.2 / 2.5 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
MIN
BOS
MIN
ML
50% 80-80
52% 84-78
47% 76-87
50% 80-81
ATS
58% 93-67
59% 95-67
48% 79-84
59% 95-66
TTL
46% 72-83-5
51% 78-75-9
47% 74-83-6
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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