SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
20-12 | Road
1
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
16-18 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Eduard Bazardo
#83 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob deGrom
#48 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduard Bazardo | None-None | 5.09 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
| Jacob deGrom | None-None | 2.61 | -- | 5.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.09
ERA
Ldr 2.61
--
WHIP
--
2.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
65%
RANGERS
35%
MARINERS
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.6
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.6 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA -3.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
SEA By 1-2 runs
17.2%
SEA By 3-4 runs
19.7%
TEX By 1-2 runs
8.9%
TEX By 3-4 runs
4.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
6.64
SEATTLE
Texas
3.03
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
Texas
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mariners
Loss
65% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rangers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mariners (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.6
A
Sim
Rangers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 10, 2026
TEX @ SEA
3 - 4
Sep 9, 2026
TEX @ SEA
2 - 3
Sep 8, 2026
TEX @ SEA
10 - 5
Jul 27, 2026
SEA @ TEX
3 - 7
Jul 26, 2026
SEA @ TEX
6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Texas
TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
4.15
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.242
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.693
OPS
▲
.713
182
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+84.2% more
Seattle: 1.8
vs
Texas: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+62.7% more
Seattle: 19.4
vs
Texas: 7.2
Hits (L5)
+49.7% more
Seattle: 11.6
vs
Texas: 5.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+18.4% more
Seattle: 6.8
vs
Texas: 5.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
6.6
1
TEX Score
3.0
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
5.8 / 11.6
11.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.3 / 1.8
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.6 / 6.8
5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
7.2 / 19.4
13.0 / 4.0
Walks
2.8 / 2.8
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
SEA
TEX
SEA
ML
53%
86-76
50%
81-81
57%
91-70
52%
85-77
ATS
57%
92-70
60%
98-64
61%
98-63
59%
95-67
TTL
53%
78-70-14
56%
85-67-10
55%
81-66-14
53%
81-71-10
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