Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Braves LAD @ ATL

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

23-10  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, May 4 • 7:10 PM ET
Truist Park
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

14-18  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Jack Dreyer
STARTING PITCHER

Jack Dreyer

#86 | Relief Pitcher
@
Raisel Iglesias
STARTING PITCHER

Raisel Iglesias

#26 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jack Dreyer None-None 3.57 -- 0.1 1
Raisel Iglesias None-None 4.85 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
3.57 Ldr ERA 4.85
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
75%
📊
BRAVES
25%
DODGERS --
BRAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.7
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.7 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 BravesATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

74.6%

Braves Cover

25.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.0%

LAD By 3-4 runs

19.3%

ATL By 1-2 runs

11.7%

ATL By 3-4 runs

6.2%

AI Model Projected Score
6.65
LOS ANGELES
4
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Loss
75% Win Prob
B
Sim Braves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.7
D
Sim Braves (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.7
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 7, 2026 LAD @ ATL 4 - 1
Oct 6, 2026 LAD @ ATL 3 - 1
Oct 4, 2026 ATL @ LAD 3 - 2
Oct 3, 2026 ATL @ LAD 3 - 5
Aug 27, 2026 LAD @ ATL 0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Atlanta ATL
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.94
Runs / Game
▲ 5.00
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.324
.424
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .433
.762 ▲
OPS
.757
204 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.5% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Atlanta: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +57.2% more
Los Angeles: 1.7 vs Atlanta: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +34.6% more
Los Angeles: 19.2 vs Atlanta: 12.6
Hits (L5) +30.9% more
Los Angeles: 11.4 vs Atlanta: 7.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 6.7 3
ATL Score 4.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.9 / 11.4 8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.7 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.3 / 9.3 12.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 12.6 / 19.2 14.0 / 13.0
Walks 2.9 / 2.8 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
ATL
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
LAD
ATL
LAD
ML
46% 77-90
56% 92-73
54% 90-78
48% 79-87
ATS
57% 96-71
59% 98-67
52% 87-81
43% 72-94
TTL
53% 83-73-11
48% 77-82-6
49% 76-80-11
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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