SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
22-11 | Road
4
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
19-15 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jeremiah Estrada
#56 | RP@
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Hill
#41 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Estrada | None-None | 2.04 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Tim Hill | None-None | 2.60 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.04 Ldr
ERA
2.60
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
61%
YANKEES
39%
PADRES
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
30%
Under 0
70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
SD By 1-2 runs
15.5%
SD By 3-4 runs
9.7%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.7%
NYY By 3-4 runs
17.0%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
3.74
SAN DIEGO
New York
5.05
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Loss
39% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.3
C
Sim
Yankees (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
NYY @ SD
3 - 4
Sep 5, 2026
NYY @ SD
5 - 1
Sep 4, 2026
NYY @ SD
2 - 3
May 7, 2025
SD @ NYY
3 - 4
May 6, 2025
SD @ NYY
3 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
New York
NYY
2
▲
Games Played
1
6.00
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.328
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.362
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.563
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.925
OPS
▲
1.041
4
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+82.0% more
New York: 1.2
vs
San Diego: 0.4
Home Runs (L5)
+70.0% more
New York: 1.6
vs
San Diego: 0.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+50.0% more
New York: 9.0
vs
San Diego: 6.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+12.6% more
New York: 9.9
vs
San Diego: 8.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
3.7
4
NYY Score
5.1
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.0 / 8.5
6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.9 / 8.8
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
14.3 / 13.1
10.0 / 7.0
Walks
4.2 / 3.9
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
SD
NYY
SD
ML
47%
76-85
51%
85-83
52%
85-77
51%
85-82
ATS
59%
95-66
54%
91-77
53%
86-76
55%
92-75
TTL
53%
81-73-7
51%
82-80-6
53%
82-72-7
54%
86-74-6
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