CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
18-17 | Road
0
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
15-18 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brady Singer
#51 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
AJ Smith-Shawver
#32 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Singer | None-None | 3.66 | -- | 6.0 | 2 |
| AJ Smith-Shawver | None-None | 3.00 | -- | 8.0 | 5 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.66
ERA
Ldr 3.00
--
WHIP
--
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 8.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
56%
BRAVES
44%
REDS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
18.9%
CIN By 3-4 runs
14.5%
ATL By 1-2 runs
17.8%
ATL By 3-4 runs
12.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
5.6
CINCINNATI
Atlanta
5.26
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Reds
Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Reds (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
C
Sim
Braves (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.9
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
CIN @ ATL
7 - 6
Sep 23, 2026
CIN @ ATL
2 - 3
Sep 22, 2026
CIN @ ATL
4 - 0
May 31, 2026
ATL @ CIN
4 - 6
May 30, 2026
ATL @ CIN
5 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.233
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.699
OPS
▲
.757
213
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.5% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+63.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.9
vs
Atlanta: 0.3
Walks (L5)
+19.3% more
Cincinnati: 3.2
vs
Atlanta: 2.6
Home Runs (L5)
+24.0% more
Atlanta: 1.1
vs
Cincinnati: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
5.6
0
ATL Score
5.3
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.9 / 7.9
7.0 / 1.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.9 / 9.3
6.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 12.4
12.0 / 1.0
Walks
2.6 / 3.2
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
CIN
ATL
CIN
ML
46%
77-90
55%
88-71
54%
90-78
49%
79-81
ATS
57%
96-71
54%
86-73
52%
87-81
50%
80-80
TTL
53%
83-73-11
53%
81-73-5
49%
76-80-11
54%
83-72-5
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