PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
12-23 | Road
3
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
16-19 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Carmen Mlodzinski
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Leahy
#62 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Mlodzinski | None-None | 6.16 | -- | 4.2 | 2 |
| Kyle Leahy | None-None | 1.27 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.16
ERA
Ldr 1.27
--
WHIP
--
4.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
38%
CARDINALS
62%
PIRATES
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
42%
Under 0
58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
PIT By 1-2 runs
18.0%
PIT By 3-4 runs
12.8%
STL By 1-2 runs
18.8%
STL By 3-4 runs
14.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.13
PITTSBURGH
St. Louis
3.38
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Cardinals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
C
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
STL @ PIT
1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026
STL @ PIT
5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026
STL @ PIT
0 - 2
Aug 30, 2026
PIT @ STL
5 - 4
Aug 29, 2026
PIT @ STL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.734
▲
OPS
.691
186
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+42.0% more
St. Louis: 0.8
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.4
Walks (L5)
+41.1% more
St. Louis: 5.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 3.5
Total Bases (L5)
+16.4% more
St. Louis: 11.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 9.9
Hits (L5)
+14.9% more
St. Louis: 8.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.1
3
STL Score
3.4
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.3 / 7.2
11.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.4
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.8 / 6.8
5.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
11.5 / 9.9
23.0 / 11.0
Walks
5.0 / 3.5
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
PIT
STL
PIT
ML
53%
85-74
52%
82-77
52%
84-77
52%
85-78
ATS
56%
89-70
54%
86-73
53%
85-76
50%
81-82
TTL
46%
68-81-10
47%
72-81-6
50%
76-75-10
50%
79-78-6
Contextual Game News
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom