NEW YORK
METSNYM
22-13 | Road
5
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
18-16 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Francisco Alvarez
#4 | Catcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Thompson
#81 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Alvarez | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Ryan Thompson | None-None | 5.40 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
5.40
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
METS
60%
DIAMONDBACKS
40%
METS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
44%
Under 0
56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.4%
NYM By 3-4 runs
15.7%
ARI By 1-2 runs
16.9%
ARI By 3-4 runs
11.4%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5.85
NEW YORK
Arizona
5.1
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Diamondbacks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mets (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
A
Sim
Diamondbacks (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 10, 2026
NYM @ ARI
1 - 5
May 9, 2026
NYM @ ARI
1 - 2
May 8, 2026
NYM @ ARI
3 - 1
Apr 9, 2026
ARI @ NYM
7 - 1
Apr 8, 2026
ARI @ NYM
7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.705
OPS
▲
.720
204
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+58.1% more
New York: 1.4
vs
Arizona: 0.6
Errors (L5)
+27.0% more
New York: 0.6
vs
Arizona: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+18.7% more
New York: 17.2
vs
Arizona: 14.0
Home Runs (Season)
+18.6% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Arizona: 166.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
5.9
5
ARI Score
5.1
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.5 / 10.8
9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.4
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.2 / 7.0
4.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
14.0 / 17.2
12.0 / 18.0
Walks
3.8 / 3.3
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
NYM
ARI
NYM
ML
54%
87-74
50%
79-80
54%
86-74
48%
76-83
ATS
57%
91-70
58%
93-66
56%
89-71
49%
78-81
TTL
52%
80-73-8
55%
80-66-13
49%
73-77-9
51%
74-72-13
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