TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
17-18 | Road
6
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
18-18 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nathan Eovaldi
#17 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ceddanne Rafaela
#3 | Center Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Eovaldi | None-None | 2.03 | -- | 6.0 | 7 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.03
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
7
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
49%
RED SOX
51%
RANGERS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.0%
TEX By 3-4 runs
14.8%
BOS By 1-2 runs
17.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
12.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
4.26
TEXAS
Boston
3.84
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Texas
4
TEXAS
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rangers
Win
49% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rangers (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
B
Sim
Red Sox (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
BOS @ TEX
4 - 3
Sep 16, 2026
BOS @ TEX
3 - 7
Sep 15, 2026
BOS @ TEX
2 - 4
Jun 14, 2026
TEX @ BOS
6 - 4
Jun 13, 2026
TEX @ BOS
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.15
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.242
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.713
▲
OPS
.409
183
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.9% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+75.9% more
Texas: 4.2
vs
Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season)
+30.4%
Texas: 71.3%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+15.8%
Texas: 31.7%
vs
Boston: 15.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
4.3
6
BOS Score
3.8
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.5 / 7.6
6.0 / 16.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 5.4
9.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
14.6 / 9.2
8.0 / 18.0
Walks
2.4 / 2.9
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
TEX
BOS
TEX
ML
50%
80-80
53%
86-76
47%
76-87
57%
91-70
ATS
58%
93-67
57%
92-70
48%
79-84
61%
98-63
TTL
46%
72-83-5
53%
78-70-14
47%
74-83-6
55%
81-66-14
Contextual Game News
Trump Surprises Clemens with Medal of Freedom Announcement at Te…
Diamondbacks Honor Virahonda and Hagaman as Top Minor Leaguers A…
Red Sox Offseason: Roman Anthony Avoids Surgery, Power Bat Searc…
Penalties and Turnovers Sink Colorado in 29-7 Loss to No. 12 Tex…
Texas Rangers Face $38.3M Arbitration Decisions on 10 Players