Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Yankees SD @ NYY

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

23-11  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, May 6 • 7:05 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

19-16  |  Home

12
Probable Pitchers
Wandy Peralta
STARTING PITCHER

Wandy Peralta

#58 | Relief Pitcher
@
Fernando Cruz
STARTING PITCHER

Fernando Cruz

#63 | RP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Wandy Peralta None-None 5.14 -- 0.2 --
Fernando Cruz None-None 1.37 -- 0.2 1
None-None W-L None-None
5.14 ERA Ldr 1.37
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
64%
📊
YANKEES
36%
PADRES --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 26%
Under 0 74%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (New York)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

41.4%

Yankees Cover

58.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

SD By 1-2 runs

16.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

11.0%

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.5%

NYY By 3-4 runs

16.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3.72
SAN DIEGO
4.59
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
SAN DIEGO
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yankees Win
36% Win Prob
D
Sim Yankees Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Yankees (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
C
Sim Yankees (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 NYY @ SD 3 - 4
Sep 5, 2026 NYY @ SD 5 - 1
Sep 4, 2026 NYY @ SD 2 - 3
May 7, 2025 SD @ NYY 3 - 4
May 6, 2025 SD @ NYY 3 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
New York NYY
2 ▲
Games Played
1
6.00
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.328
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.362
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.563
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.925
OPS
▲ 1.041
4 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +79.0% more
New York: 1.4 vs San Diego: 0.6
Runs per Game (Season) +50.0% more
New York: 9.0 vs San Diego: 6.0
Errors (L5) +21.0% more
New York: 0.8 vs San Diego: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +16.1% more
New York: 12.9 vs San Diego: 11.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 3.7 3
NYY Score 4.6 12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.3 / 7.7 10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 0.6 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 8.9 6.0 / 2.0
Total Bases 12.9 / 11.1 19.0 / 12.0
Walks 4.1 / 4.0 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
SD
NYY
SD
ML
47% 76-85
51% 85-83
52% 85-77
51% 85-82
ATS
59% 95-66
54% 91-77
53% 86-76
55% 92-75
TTL
53% 81-73-7
51% 82-80-6
53% 82-72-7
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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