CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
18-18 | Road
1
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
16-18 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Pierce Johnson
#52 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Raisel Iglesias
#26 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierce Johnson | None-None | 2.77 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Raisel Iglesias | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.77 Ldr
ERA
4.50
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
53%
BRAVES
47%
REDS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
CIN By 1-2 runs
15.5%
CIN By 3-4 runs
9.7%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ATL By 3-4 runs
17.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
4.64
CINCINNATI
Atlanta
5.96
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
7
CINCINNATI
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Win
47% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
C
Sim
Reds (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.6
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
CIN @ ATL
7 - 6
Sep 23, 2026
CIN @ ATL
2 - 3
Sep 22, 2026
CIN @ ATL
4 - 0
May 31, 2026
ATL @ CIN
4 - 6
May 30, 2026
ATL @ CIN
5 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.233
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.699
OPS
▲
.757
213
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+49.0% more
Atlanta: 1.1
vs
Cincinnati: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+48.2% more
Atlanta: 12.7
vs
Cincinnati: 8.6
Hits (L5)
+35.7% more
Atlanta: 7.6
vs
Cincinnati: 5.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+23.0% more
Atlanta: 9.3
vs
Cincinnati: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
4.6
1
ATL Score
6.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 5.6
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.3 / 7.5
17.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
12.7 / 8.6
10.0 / 8.0
Walks
3.4 / 3.2
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
CIN
ATL
CIN
ML
46%
77-90
55%
88-71
54%
90-78
49%
79-81
ATS
57%
96-71
54%
86-73
52%
87-81
50%
80-80
TTL
53%
83-73-11
53%
81-73-5
49%
76-80-11
54%
83-72-5
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