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BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

13-20  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, May 6 • 7:40 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

15-20  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Coby Mayo
STARTING PITCHER

Coby Mayo

#16 | Third Base
@
Trevor Larnach
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor Larnach

#9 | Left Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Coby Mayo None-None -- -- -- --
Trevor Larnach None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
46%
📊
TWINS
54%
ORIOLES --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 78%
Under 0 22%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Baltimore)
OriolesBAL (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

65.0%

Twins Cover

35.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

BAL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

BAL By 3-4 runs

17.6%

MIN By 1-2 runs

14.9%

MIN By 3-4 runs

9.1%

AI Model Projected Score
4.66
BALTIMORE
3.12
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
3
BALTIMORE
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Orioles Loss
46% Win Prob
D
Sim Twins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Orioles (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Twins (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.8
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 12, 2026 BAL @ MIN 5 - 7
Aug 11, 2026 BAL @ MIN 5 - 2
Aug 10, 2026 BAL @ MIN 5 - 9
Mar 29, 2026 MIN @ BAL 6 - 8
Mar 28, 2026 MIN @ BAL 4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
Minnesota MIN
161
Games Played
▲ 162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.711
OPS
▲ .720
199 ▲
Home Runs
187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +51.6% more
Baltimore: 1.9 vs Minnesota: 0.9
Total Bases (L5) +16.8% more
Baltimore: 15.9 vs Minnesota: 13.2
Errors (L5) +14.0% more
Baltimore: 0.6 vs Minnesota: 0.5
Home Runs (Season) +6.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs Minnesota: 187.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 4.7 1
MIN Score 3.1 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.6 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 9.1 / 8.5 10.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.9 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 6.5 17.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.2 / 15.9 18.0 / 4.0
Walks 2.4 / 2.3 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
BAL
MIN
BAL
ML
52% 84-78
53% 83-73
50% 80-81
57% 90-69
ATS
59% 95-67
61% 95-60-1
59% 95-66
57% 90-68-1
TTL
51% 78-75-9
54% 81-70-5
53% 80-72-9
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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