PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
12-24 | Road
1
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
17-19 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Paul Skenes
#30 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gordon Graceffo
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | None-None | 2.77 | -- | 6.0 | 6 |
| Gordon Graceffo | None-None | 6.30 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.77 Ldr
ERA
6.30
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
36%
CARDINALS
64%
PIRATES
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
32%
Under 0
68%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1-2 runs
18.5%
PIT By 3-4 runs
13.7%
STL By 1-2 runs
18.4%
STL By 3-4 runs
13.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.44
PITTSBURGH
St. Louis
3.41
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pirates
Loss
36% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pirates (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: 0.0
B
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
STL @ PIT
1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026
STL @ PIT
5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026
STL @ PIT
0 - 2
Aug 30, 2026
PIT @ STL
5 - 4
Aug 29, 2026
PIT @ STL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.734
▲
OPS
.691
186
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+10.2% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
St. Louis: 167.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+6.1% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
St. Louis: 4.4
OPS (Season)
+4.3%
Pittsburgh: 73.4%
vs
St. Louis: 69.1%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+2.6%
Pittsburgh: 40.4%
vs
St. Louis: 37.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.4
1
STL Score
3.4
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.2 / 7.1
4.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.2 / 6.2
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
15.4 / 10.3
5.0 / 5.0
Walks
4.7 / 3.4
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
PIT
STL
PIT
ML
53%
85-74
52%
82-77
52%
84-77
52%
85-78
ATS
56%
89-70
54%
86-73
53%
85-76
50%
81-82
TTL
46%
68-81-10
47%
72-81-6
50%
76-75-10
50%
79-78-6
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