PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
12-25 | Road
0
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
18-19 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mitch Keller
#23 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Leahy
#62 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | None-None | 4.40 | -- | 6.0 | 6 |
| Kyle Leahy | None-None | 1.21 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.40
ERA
Ldr 1.21
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
34%
CARDINALS
66%
PIRATES
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
PIT By 1-2 runs
17.9%
PIT By 3-4 runs
12.7%
STL By 1-2 runs
18.9%
STL By 3-4 runs
14.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
2.94
PITTSBURGH
St. Louis
3.23
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Win
66% Win Prob
C
Sim
Cardinals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
STL @ PIT
1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026
STL @ PIT
5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026
STL @ PIT
0 - 2
Aug 30, 2026
PIT @ STL
5 - 4
Aug 29, 2026
PIT @ STL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.734
▲
OPS
.691
186
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+63.0% more
St. Louis: 1.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+39.8% more
St. Louis: 11.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 8.5
Hits (L5)
+22.3% more
St. Louis: 7.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 6.1
Errors (L5)
+22.0% more
St. Louis: 0.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
2.9
0
STL Score
3.2
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.5 / 6.1
11.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.1 / 6.8
10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
11.9 / 8.5
15.0 / 4.0
Walks
4.1 / 3.6
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
PIT
STL
PIT
ML
53%
85-74
52%
82-77
52%
84-77
52%
85-78
ATS
56%
89-70
54%
86-73
53%
85-76
50%
81-82
TTL
46%
68-81-10
47%
72-81-6
50%
76-75-10
50%
79-78-6
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