NEW YORK
METSNYM
23-14 | Road
7
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
19-17 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kodai Senga
#34 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Merrill Kelly
#29 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga | None-None | 1.16 | -- | 6.0 | 4 |
| Merrill Kelly | None-None | 4.09 | -- | 6.1 | 6 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.16 Ldr
ERA
4.09
--
WHIP
--
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.1
4
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
METS
60%
DIAMONDBACKS
40%
METS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.2%
NYM By 3-4 runs
15.1%
ARI By 1-2 runs
17.4%
ARI By 3-4 runs
12.0%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5.55
NEW YORK
Arizona
5.01
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Win
60% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mets (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim
Diamondbacks (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 10, 2026
NYM @ ARI
1 - 5
May 9, 2026
NYM @ ARI
1 - 2
May 8, 2026
NYM @ ARI
3 - 1
Apr 9, 2026
ARI @ NYM
7 - 1
Apr 8, 2026
ARI @ NYM
7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.318
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.705
OPS
▲
.720
204
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+79.0% more
New York: 0.9
vs
Arizona: 0.2
Home Runs (L5)
+22.9% more
New York: 1.1
vs
Arizona: 0.8
Home Runs (Season)
+18.6% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Arizona: 166.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+5.8% more
Arizona: 4.6
vs
New York: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
5.6
7
ARI Score
5.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 7.9
6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.1
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.7 / 7.3
8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 13.0
10.0 / 20.0
Walks
4.1 / 4.0
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
NYM
ARI
NYM
ML
54%
87-74
50%
79-80
54%
86-74
48%
76-83
ATS
57%
91-70
58%
93-66
56%
89-71
49%
78-81
TTL
52%
80-73-8
55%
80-66-13
49%
73-77-9
51%
74-72-13
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