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LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

24-12  |  Road

10
FINAL
Wed, May 7 • 4:40 PM ET
loanDepot park
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

14-21  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Enrique Hernandez
STARTING PITCHER

Enrique Hernandez

#8 | Third Base
@
Tyler Phillips
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Phillips

#30 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Enrique Hernandez None-None -- -- -- --
Tyler Phillips None-None 5.48 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 5.48
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
75%
📊
MARLINS
25%
DODGERS --
MARLINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 MarlinsMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

70.1%

Marlins Cover

29.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.5%

LAD By 3-4 runs

18.6%

MIA By 1-2 runs

13.2%

MIA By 3-4 runs

7.5%

AI Model Projected Score
6.32
LOS ANGELES
4.21
MIAMI
Simulated Score
2
LOS ANGELES
7
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Win
75% Win Prob
B
Sim Marlins Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.1
D
Sim Marlins (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.5
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 LAD @ MIA 4 - 6
Sep 12, 2026 LAD @ MIA 3 - 4
Sep 11, 2026 LAD @ MIA 6 - 2
Apr 29, 2026 MIA @ LAD 3 - 2
Apr 28, 2026 MIA @ LAD 2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Miami MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.249
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.762 ▲
OPS
.727
204 ▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +43.4% more
Los Angeles: 1.8 vs Miami: 1.0
Total Bases (L5) +27.8% more
Los Angeles: 18.4 vs Miami: 13.3
Strikeouts (L5) +19.4% more
Los Angeles: 10.7 vs Miami: 8.6
Home Runs (Season) +17.6% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Miami: 168.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 6.3 10
MIA Score 4.2 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.3 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 8.7 / 10.0 5.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.8 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 10.7 11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 13.3 / 18.4 6.0 / 19.0
Walks 3.6 / 3.5 6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
LAD
MIA
LAD
ML
48% 78-84
56% 92-73
55% 88-72
48% 79-87
ATS
56% 91-71
59% 98-67
54% 86-74
43% 72-94
TTL
56% 88-69-5
48% 77-82-6
53% 82-73-5
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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