TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
18-18 | Road
4
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
18-19 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Evan Carter
#32 | Center Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Carter | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 2.19 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
2.19
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
51%
RED SOX
49%
RANGERS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
67%
Under 0
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TEX By 3-4 runs
16.9%
BOS By 1-2 runs
15.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
9.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
4.78
TEXAS
Boston
3.52
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Texas
4
TEXAS
Boston
6
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rangers
Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rangers (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.3
C
Sim
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.3
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
BOS @ TEX
4 - 3
Sep 16, 2026
BOS @ TEX
3 - 7
Sep 15, 2026
BOS @ TEX
2 - 4
Jun 14, 2026
TEX @ BOS
6 - 4
Jun 13, 2026
TEX @ BOS
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.15
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.242
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.713
▲
OPS
.409
183
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.9% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+75.9% more
Texas: 4.2
vs
Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season)
+30.4%
Texas: 71.3%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Hits (L5)
+19.4% more
Texas: 10.4
vs
Boston: 8.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
4.8
4
BOS Score
3.5
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.2
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.4 / 10.4
11.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.1
3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 7.6
5.0 / 1.0
Total Bases
12.4 / 12.1
22.0 / 16.0
Walks
2.3 / 2.3
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
TEX
BOS
TEX
ML
50%
80-80
53%
86-76
47%
76-87
57%
91-70
ATS
58%
93-67
57%
92-70
48%
79-84
61%
98-63
TTL
46%
72-83-5
53%
78-70-14
47%
74-83-6
55%
81-66-14
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