Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Yankees SD @ NYY

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

23-12  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, May 7 • 7:05 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

20-16  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Jeremiah Estrada
STARTING PITCHER

Jeremiah Estrada

#56 | RP
@
Max Fried
STARTING PITCHER

Max Fried

#54 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jeremiah Estrada None-None 1.96 -- 0.2 --
Max Fried None-None 1.05 -- 7.0 8
None-None W-L None-None
1.96 ERA Ldr 1.05
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
61%
📊
YANKEES
39%
PADRES --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 37%
Under 0 63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (New York)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

30.9%

Yankees Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

SD By 1-2 runs

13.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

7.8%

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.39
SAN DIEGO
5.39
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
SAN DIEGO
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yankees Win
39% Win Prob
D
Sim Yankees Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Yankees (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Yankees (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 NYY @ SD 3 - 4
Sep 5, 2026 NYY @ SD 5 - 1
Sep 4, 2026 NYY @ SD 2 - 3
May 7, 2025 SD @ NYY 3 - 4
May 6, 2025 SD @ NYY 3 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
New York NYY
2 ▲
Games Played
1
6.00
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.328
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.362
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.563
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.925
OPS
▲ 1.041
4 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +119.0% more
New York: 1.6 vs San Diego: 0.4
Runs per Game (Season) +50.0% more
New York: 9.0 vs San Diego: 6.0
Total Bases (L5) +31.0% more
New York: 14.9 vs San Diego: 11.4
Strikeouts (L5) +21.2% more
New York: 8.0 vs San Diego: 6.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 3.4 3
NYY Score 5.4 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.2 / 8.4 3.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 0.4 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 6.6 11.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 14.9 / 11.4 9.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.4 / 4.3 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
SD
NYY
SD
ML
47% 76-85
51% 85-83
52% 85-77
51% 85-82
ATS
59% 95-66
54% 91-77
53% 86-76
55% 92-75
TTL
53% 81-73-7
51% 82-80-6
53% 82-72-7
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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