CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
18-19 | Road
4
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
17-18 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Emilio Pagan
#15 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Lee
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emilio Pagan | None-None | 2.60 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Dylan Lee | None-None | 2.45 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.60
ERA
Ldr 2.45
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
50%
BRAVES
50%
REDS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
CIN By 1-2 runs
14.7%
CIN By 3-4 runs
8.9%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ATL By 3-4 runs
17.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
4.41
CINCINNATI
Atlanta
6.01
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Braves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Braves (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim
Braves (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
CIN @ ATL
7 - 6
Sep 23, 2026
CIN @ ATL
2 - 3
Sep 22, 2026
CIN @ ATL
4 - 0
May 31, 2026
ATL @ CIN
4 - 6
May 30, 2026
ATL @ CIN
5 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.233
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.699
OPS
▲
.757
213
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+40.8% more
Atlanta: 11.8
vs
Cincinnati: 8.4
Home Runs (L5)
+33.0% more
Atlanta: 0.7
vs
Cincinnati: 0.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+31.3% more
Atlanta: 11.8
vs
Cincinnati: 9.0
Hits (L5)
+27.3% more
Atlanta: 7.7
vs
Cincinnati: 6.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
4.4
4
ATL Score
6.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.7 / 6.1
6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 0.4
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
11.8 / 9.0
9.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
11.8 / 8.4
9.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.3 / 3.4
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
CIN
ATL
CIN
ML
46%
77-90
55%
88-71
54%
90-78
49%
79-81
ATS
57%
96-71
54%
86-73
52%
87-81
50%
80-80
TTL
53%
83-73-11
53%
81-73-5
49%
76-80-11
54%
83-72-5
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