Home / MLB Projections MLB / Orioles @ Twins BAL @ MIN

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

13-21  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, May 7 • 7:40 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

16-20  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Jackson Holliday
STARTING PITCHER

Jackson Holliday

#7 | Second Base
@
Kody Clemens
STARTING PITCHER

Kody Clemens

#2 | Second Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jackson Holliday None-None -- -- -- --
Kody Clemens None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
44%
📊
TWINS
56%
ORIOLES --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 72%
Under 0 28%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Baltimore)
OriolesBAL (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

52.8%

Twins Cover

47.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

BAL By 1-2 runs

18.9%

BAL By 3-4 runs

14.4%

MIN By 1-2 runs

17.9%

MIN By 3-4 runs

12.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.26
BALTIMORE
3.98
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
4
BALTIMORE
6
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Orioles Loss
44% Win Prob
D
Sim Twins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Orioles (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim Twins (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.2
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 12, 2026 BAL @ MIN 5 - 7
Aug 11, 2026 BAL @ MIN 5 - 2
Aug 10, 2026 BAL @ MIN 5 - 9
Mar 29, 2026 MIN @ BAL 6 - 8
Mar 28, 2026 MIN @ BAL 4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
Minnesota MIN
161
Games Played
▲ 162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.711
OPS
▲ .720
199 ▲
Home Runs
187
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +71.7% more
Baltimore: 1.1 vs Minnesota: 0.3
Home Runs (Season) +6.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs Minnesota: 187.0
Strikeouts (L5) +67.3% more
Minnesota: 11.2 vs Baltimore: 6.7
Hits (L5) +41.9% more
Minnesota: 9.4 vs Baltimore: 6.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 4.3 2
MIN Score 4.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.4 / 6.6 8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.2 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 11.2 / 6.7 7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 14.8 / 11.9 14.0 / 14.0
Walks 2.6 / 1.9 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
BAL
MIN
BAL
ML
52% 84-78
53% 83-73
50% 80-81
57% 90-69
ATS
59% 95-67
61% 95-60-1
59% 95-66
57% 90-68-1
TTL
51% 78-75-9
54% 81-70-5
53% 80-72-9
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 2 hours, 14 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 2 hours, 22 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 2 hours, 25 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 2 hours, 32 minutes ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 14 hours, 28 minutes ago