BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
13-22 | Road
2
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
17-20 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Yennier Cano
#78 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bailey Ober
#17 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yennier Cano | None-None | 3.00 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Bailey Ober | None-None | 3.50 | -- | 5.0 | 6 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.00 Ldr
ERA
3.50
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
41%
TWINS
59%
ORIOLES
--
TWINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
BAL By 1-2 runs
18.0%
BAL By 3-4 runs
12.8%
MIN By 1-2 runs
18.8%
MIN By 3-4 runs
14.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
3.91
BALTIMORE
Minnesota
4.17
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Twins
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
Twins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Twins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
D
Sim
Twins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 12, 2026
BAL @ MIN
5 - 7
Aug 11, 2026
BAL @ MIN
5 - 2
Aug 10, 2026
BAL @ MIN
5 - 9
Mar 29, 2026
MIN @ BAL
6 - 8
Mar 28, 2026
MIN @ BAL
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Minnesota
MIN
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.711
OPS
▲
.720
199
▲
Home Runs
187
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+51.5% more
Minnesota: 9.8
vs
Baltimore: 6.5
Home Runs (L5)
+30.2% more
Minnesota: 1.5
vs
Baltimore: 1.2
Hits (L5)
+15.3% more
Minnesota: 9.0
vs
Baltimore: 7.8
Total Bases (L5)
+15.2% more
Minnesota: 14.6
vs
Baltimore: 12.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
3.9
2
MIN Score
4.2
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.0 / 7.8
5.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.2
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.8 / 6.5
11.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
14.6 / 12.6
9.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.1 / 1.9
1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
BAL
MIN
BAL
ML
52%
84-78
53%
83-73
50%
80-81
57%
90-69
ATS
59%
95-67
61%
95-60-1
59%
95-66
57%
90-68-1
TTL
51%
78-75-9
54%
81-70-5
53%
80-72-9
51%
78-75-6
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