ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
18-19 | Road
2
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
12-26 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryce Elder
#55 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jared Triolo
#19 | Shortstop| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Elder | None-None | 4.97 | -- | 6.0 | 8 |
| Jared Triolo | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.97
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
8
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
67%
PIRATES
33%
BRAVES
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.5%
ATL By 3-4 runs
18.7%
PIT By 1-2 runs
13.1%
PIT By 3-4 runs
7.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
4.56
ATLANTA
Pittsburgh
2.4
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Pittsburgh
7
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Loss
67% Win Prob
C
Sim
Pirates
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.2
D
Sim
Pirates (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 9, 2026
ATL @ PIT
10 - 5
Jul 8, 2026
ATL @ PIT
3 - 0
Jul 7, 2026
ATL @ PIT
4 - 12
Jun 7, 2026
PIT @ ATL
2 - 3
Jun 6, 2026
PIT @ ATL
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.73
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.324
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.404
.757
▲
OPS
.734
1
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+39.5% more
Atlanta: 11.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.0
Hits (L5)
+33.5% more
Atlanta: 8.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 5.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+31.0% more
Atlanta: 10.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.5
Home Runs (L5)
+30.0% more
Atlanta: 0.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
4.6
2
PIT Score
2.4
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.4 / 8.1
5.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.3 / 0.6
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 10.9
8.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
7.0 / 11.6
12.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.4 / 3.5
3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
ATL
PIT
ATL
ML
52%
82-77
46%
77-90
52%
85-78
54%
90-78
ATS
54%
86-73
57%
96-71
50%
81-82
52%
87-81
TTL
47%
72-81-6
53%
83-73-11
50%
79-78-6
49%
76-80-11
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