Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Nationals STL @ WSH

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

19-19  |  Road

10
FINAL
Fri, May 9 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

17-21  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Pedro Pages
STARTING PITCHER

Pedro Pages

#43 | Catcher
@
Dylan Crews
STARTING PITCHER

Dylan Crews

#3 | Right Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Pedro Pages None-None -- -- -- --
Dylan Crews None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
55%
📊
NATIONALS
45%
CARDINALS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 41%
Under 0 59%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (St. Louis)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

60.1%

Nationals Cover

39.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

STL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

16.4%

WSH By 1-2 runs

16.3%

WSH By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4.23
ST. LOUIS
3.21
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
ST. LOUIS
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cardinals (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Nationals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 WSH @ STL 3 - 5
Sep 19, 2026 WSH @ STL 8 - 5
Sep 18, 2026 WSH @ STL 9 - 1
Apr 8, 2026 STL @ WSH 6 - 1
Apr 7, 2026 STL @ WSH 7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .246
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.691
OPS
▲ .744
167
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +56.0% more
St. Louis: 0.7 vs Washington: 0.1
Walks (L5) +39.7% more
Washington: 4.3 vs St. Louis: 3.1
Home Runs (Season) +25.7% more
Washington: 210.0 vs St. Louis: 167.0
Hits (L5) +23.1% more
Washington: 10.6 vs St. Louis: 8.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 4.2 10
WSH Score 3.2 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.6 / 8.6 6.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 8.1 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 15.4 / 12.9 7.0 / 15.0
Walks 4.3 / 3.1 8.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
STL
WSH
STL
ML
57% 92-69
53% 85-74
54% 87-74
52% 84-77
ATS
58% 93-68
56% 89-70
57% 91-70
53% 85-76
TTL
50% 77-78-6
46% 68-81-10
42% 65-90-6
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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