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MILWAUKEE

BREWERSMIL

19-19  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, May 9 • 7:05 PM ET
George M. Steinbrenner Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

16-21  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Grant Anderson
STARTING PITCHER

Grant Anderson

#56 | Relief Pitcher
@
Chandler Simpson
STARTING PITCHER

Chandler Simpson

#14 | Left Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Grant Anderson None-None 2.57 -- 1.0 --
Chandler Simpson None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.57 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
57%
📊
RAYS
43%
BREWERS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 63%
Under 0 37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Milwaukee)
BrewersMIL (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Brewers Cover

64.2%

Rays Cover

35.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)

MIL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

MIL By 3-4 runs

17.4%

TB By 1-2 runs

15.1%

TB By 3-4 runs

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.2
MILWAUKEE
2.75
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
3
MILWAUKEE
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Brewers Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Brewers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Rays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 1, 2026 TB @ MIL 2 - 8
Mar 31, 2026 TB @ MIL 2 - 6
Mar 30, 2026 TB @ MIL 3 - 2
May 11, 2025 MIL @ TB 4 - 2
May 10, 2025 MIL @ TB 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee MIL
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
5.14 ▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.258
Avg (AVG)
.258
.341 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.743 ▲
OPS
.728
154
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +40.4% more
Milwaukee: 1.0 vs Tampa Bay: 0.6
Walks (L5) +19.0% more
Milwaukee: 3.9 vs Tampa Bay: 3.2
Strikeouts (L5) +18.8% more
Milwaukee: 7.1 vs Tampa Bay: 5.7
Runs per Game (Season) +11.7% more
Milwaukee: 5.1 vs Tampa Bay: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 4.2 3
TB Score 2.8 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 1.0 1.0 / 3.0
Hits 8.6 / 5.8 7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 5.7 / 7.1 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 11.9 / 9.8 10.0 / 8.0
Walks 3.2 / 3.9 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL Advantage
106-60-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
TB
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7% Total +/-: +0.8
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
MIL
TB
MIL
ML
58% 95-68
62% 101-61
58% 95-68
52% 84-78
ATS
60% 97-66
58% 94-68
55% 90-73
48% 78-84
TTL
47% 73-81-9
40% 62-92-8
51% 78-75-10
50% 77-77-8
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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