CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
22-16 | Road
2
NEW YORK
METSNYM
24-14 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gavin Hollowell
#46 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brett Baty
#7 | Third Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Hollowell | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Brett Baty | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
2
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
45%
METS
55%
CUBS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
61%
Under 0
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
CHC By 1-2 runs
18.3%
CHC By 3-4 runs
13.4%
NYM By 1-2 runs
18.5%
NYM By 3-4 runs
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
5.86
CHICAGO
New York
5.91
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Chicago
4
CHICAGO
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: 0.0
C
Sim
Mets (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.8
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 25, 2026
CHC @ NYM
4 - 3
Jun 24, 2026
CHC @ NYM
10 - 3
Jun 23, 2026
CHC @ NYM
9 - 6
Apr 19, 2026
NYM @ CHC
1 - 2
Apr 18, 2026
NYM @ CHC
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
New York
NYM
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.395
.374
OPS
▲
.705
0
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+20400.0% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+381.0% more
New York: 4.3
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+33.8% more
New York: 15.3
vs
Chicago: 11.5
OPS (Season)
+33.1%
New York: 70.5%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
5.9
2
NYM Score
5.9
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.8
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.0 / 6.9
13.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.0
4.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 8.7
11.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
15.3 / 11.5
26.0 / 12.0
Walks
4.4 / 3.3
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
CHC
NYM
CHC
ML
50%
79-80
58%
93-68
48%
76-83
51%
82-79
ATS
58%
93-66
61%
97-63-1
49%
78-81
47%
75-85-1
TTL
55%
80-66-13
52%
81-74-6
51%
74-72-13
46%
72-83-6
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