Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Royals BOS @ KC

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

20-19  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, May 9 • 7:40 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

23-16  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Garrett Whitlock
STARTING PITCHER

Garrett Whitlock

#22 | Relief Pitcher
@
Steven Cruz
STARTING PITCHER

Steven Cruz

#64 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Garrett Whitlock None-None 3.38 -- 0.2 2
Steven Cruz None-None 0.00 -- 0.2 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.38 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
42%
📊
ROYALS
58%
RED SOX --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 37%
Under 0 63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Boston)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

56.9%

Royals Cover

43.1%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.4%

BOS By 3-4 runs

15.5%

KC By 1-2 runs

17.0%

KC By 3-4 runs

11.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.41
BOSTON
4.71
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
6
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Loss
42% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Sox (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
B
Sim Royals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 KC @ BOS 1 - 4
Sep 12, 2026 KC @ BOS 1 - 5
Sep 11, 2026 KC @ BOS 3 - 2
May 20, 2026 BOS @ KC 4 - 3
May 19, 2026 BOS @ KC 7 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Kansas City KC
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.26
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.409
OPS
▲ .718
2
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +57.2% more
Boston: 3.7 vs Kansas City: 1.6
Home Runs (L5) +23.1% more
Boston: 1.3 vs Kansas City: 1.0
Errors (L5) +20.0% more
Boston: 0.4 vs Kansas City: 0.2
Home Runs (Season) +8400.0% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 5.4 1
KC Score 4.7 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 12.0 / 8.2 8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.3 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 5.8 10.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 18.3 / 13.7 11.0 / 7.0
Walks 1.6 / 3.7 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
KC Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
BOS
KC
BOS
ML
55% 89-72
50% 80-80
56% 90-70
47% 76-87
ATS
57% 91-70
58% 93-67
58% 93-67
48% 79-84
TTL
58% 90-64-7
46% 72-83-5
54% 83-70-7
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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