Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Twins SF @ MIN

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

24-14  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, May 9 • 8:10 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

18-20  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Christian Koss
STARTING PITCHER

Christian Koss

#50 | Shortstop
@
Royce Lewis
STARTING PITCHER

Royce Lewis

#23 | First Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Christian Koss None-None -- -- -- --
Royce Lewis None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
66%
📊
TWINS
34%
GIANTS --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Minnesota)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

37.8%

Twins Cover

62.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

SF By 1-2 runs

15.7%

SF By 3-4 runs

9.9%

MIN By 1-2 runs

19.7%

MIN By 3-4 runs

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.28
SAN FRANCISCO
5.52
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
4
SAN FRANCISCO
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Twins Win
34% Win Prob
D
Sim Twins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Twins (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
C
Sim Twins (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 23, 2026 MIN @ SF 4 - 2
Sep 22, 2026 MIN @ SF 3 - 2
Sep 21, 2026 MIN @ SF 2 - 5
May 11, 2025 SF @ MIN 6 - 7
May 10, 2025 SF @ MIN 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Minnesota MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.56
.245
Avg (AVG)
.245
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .403
.706
OPS
▲ .720
178
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +51.0% more
Minnesota: 1.3 vs San Francisco: 0.8
Strikeouts (L5) +24.9% more
Minnesota: 10.2 vs San Francisco: 8.2
Runs per Game (Season) +10.4% more
Minnesota: 4.6 vs San Francisco: 4.1
Home Runs (Season) +5.1% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs San Francisco: 178.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 4.3 1
MIN Score 5.5 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 1.1 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.6 / 10.2 7.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.2 / 8.2 8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 12.7 / 14.5 9.0 / 6.0
Walks 1.7 / 3.5 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
SF
MIN
SF
ML
52% 84-78
49% 79-81
50% 80-81
53% 85-75
ATS
59% 95-67
62% 100-60
59% 95-66
52% 83-77
TTL
51% 78-75-9
55% 82-68-10
53% 80-72-9
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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