CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
19-20 | Road
0
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
18-18 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Stephenson
#37 | Catcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Hader
#71 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Josh Hader | None-None | 1.59 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
1.59
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
49%
ASTROS
51%
REDS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.4%
CIN By 3-4 runs
18.8%
HOU By 1-2 runs
12.8%
HOU By 3-4 runs
7.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
6.03
CINCINNATI
Houston
3.76
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Reds
Loss
49% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Reds (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.3
D
Sim
Astros (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 10, 2026
HOU @ CIN
0 - 5
May 9, 2026
HOU @ CIN
1 - 3
May 8, 2026
HOU @ CIN
10 - 0
May 11, 2025
CIN @ HOU
0 - 6
May 10, 2025
CIN @ HOU
13 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.11
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.229
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.305
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.394
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.699
▲
OPS
.582
213
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.1% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Errors (L5)
+30.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.5
vs
Houston: 0.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+27.0% more
Cincinnati: 4.1
vs
Houston: 3.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+17.4% more
Cincinnati: 10.9
vs
Houston: 9.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
6.0
0
HOU Score
3.8
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.1 / 7.3
13.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.0
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 10.9
15.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 12.2
17.0 / 5.0
Walks
3.6 / 2.8
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
CIN
HOU
CIN
ML
50%
81-82
55%
88-71
47%
77-87
49%
79-81
ATS
56%
91-72
54%
86-73
55%
90-74
50%
80-80
TTL
45%
70-84-9
53%
81-73-5
45%
69-86-9
54%
83-72-5
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