TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
17-20 | Road
6
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
22-14 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brendon Little
#54 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Randy Arozarena
#56 | Left Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendon Little | None-None | 2.00 | -- | 1.2 | 3 |
| Randy Arozarena | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.00
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
3
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
35%
MARINERS
65%
BLUE JAYS
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
85%
Under 0
15%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
TOR By 1-2 runs
15.8%
TOR By 3-4 runs
10.1%
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SEA By 3-4 runs
16.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
4.47
TORONTO
Seattle
5.65
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mariners
Loss
65% Win Prob
C
Sim
Mariners
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim
Mariners (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.1
A
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2026
SEA @ TOR
0 - 7
Aug 29, 2026
SEA @ TOR
3 - 4
Aug 28, 2026
SEA @ TOR
1 - 8
Jul 5, 2026
TOR @ SEA
0 - 4
Jul 4, 2026
TOR @ SEA
0 - 11
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Seattle
SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.10
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.381
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.692
OPS
▲
.693
152
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+19.7% more
Seattle: 182.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+2.5% more
Seattle: 4.1
vs
Toronto: 4.0
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.4%
Seattle: 31.4%
vs
Toronto: 31.0%
Errors (L5)
+38.0% more
Toronto: 0.9
vs
Seattle: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
4.5
6
SEA Score
5.7
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.8 / 10.9
9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.9
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 11.0
8.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
14.6 / 15.1
11.0 / 16.0
Walks
2.9 / 3.4
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
TOR
SEA
TOR
ML
50%
81-81
46%
74-87
52%
85-77
50%
80-80
ATS
60%
98-64
56%
90-71
59%
95-67
49%
79-81
TTL
56%
85-67-10
51%
80-76-5
53%
81-71-10
45%
70-85-5
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